Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Prioritising Emerging or Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases Associated with Climate Change in Canada
نویسندگان
چکیده
Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.
منابع مشابه
Designing a managed care model for emerging respiratory infectious diseases in the Iranian health care system
Background and Aim: The purpose of this study is to design a model of managed care for emerging respiratory infectious diseases in the Iranian health care system in 1399. Methods: To achieve this goal, first the effective factors and indicators affecting the managed care model for emerging respiratory infectious diseases are identified based on content analysis technique and then these factors...
متن کاملThe Use of Expert Opinion to Assess the Risk of Emergence or Re-Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Canada Associated with Climate Change
Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to...
متن کاملImpact of Climate Change and Environmental Change on Emerging and Re-emerging Animal Diseases and Animal Production
Climate change and environmental change are a subset of the larger set of ecosystem changes that are promoting the emergence and re-emergence of animal diseases. The complexity of the interconnectedness between a wide range of factors influencing the emergence and re emergence of animal diseases means that uncertainty will continue to be a feature of the future. Central Veterinary Authorities r...
متن کاملLessons From Zika Policies to Improve Gender Equity
Gender equity is easily supported in theory but harder to pursue in practice. In this article, the case of Zika travel policies is used to illustrate some glaring gaps related to gender, for both men and women, at both international and national levels. Zika travel policies have not considered new evidence on biological or social determinants of health, putting babies at risk of exposure. The a...
متن کاملCriteria for the prioritization of public health interventions for climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases in Quebec
Prioritizing resources for optimal responses to an ever growing list of existing and emerging infectious diseases represents an important challenge to public health. In the context of climate change, there is increasing anticipated variability in the occurrence of infectious diseases, notably climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. An essential step in prioritizing efforts is to identify what ...
متن کامل